I like data and statistics, and by that, I meant reliable data so I can visualize without having to understand too many stuff. Just a line graph, simple and straight to the point. All the data I gathered was taken from worldometer, which they are using reliable sources and have more details about it.
Data based on this site with prediction based on last 3 days exponential growth
Data based on this site
Update (Newest first)
- Death toll surpass 2000 people.
- Fatality rate: Worldwide (12%), Without China (3.2%). Based on reported case. Unreported confirmed case will dramatically reduce the rate while unreported death will increase the rate.
- More cities in china are expected to update a lump of confirmed case this coming days. Yesterday huge jump in number causing unreliable figures on day to day statistics and projection. I was expecting the number to come down after it stops peaking around 10/02, but the new data raises doubtful thoughts and concern on global health.
- R naught (R0) is not going down either. As long as R0 above 1, we need to be careful.
- A huge spike on the confirmed case and death rate because China once again change something with report. It was said to be 13332 cases are 'provisional' based on new diagnosis (clinically - by doing mri/cat scan presumably) in Hubei.
- What concerning to me is the death figure which tell us a bit about the accuracy of it and claims by the people of China that it's much higher. This is backed by another claim saying the crematory worker have to work extra shift because there are too many bodies to burn.
TED part. Stay safe
As a good citizen, you should wear mask when you're at public space especially when you feel you're sick. Some people on the net said wearing mask is not necessary and can cause opposite effect. I personally disagree and wearing mask at all time is the safest solution since the virus is now airborne capable.
China have been untruthful and making changes on defintion of positive case. On their official infosite (qq), they will only report positive case with symptomps. Yes. Positive reuslt without any evidence of sickness is considered not infected. So the data coming in since 09/02 is considered unreliable. Take the graph data with a grain of salt.
Generally I consider the real number is 20% higher but I won't reflect that on my graph. I do put prediction based on growth increment (excel exponential function) and it's based on last 3 days. I can put the data based on all records but the number will just jump way higher due to the fact that is how exponential works. Does the number mean anything? Of course not. It's just a projection and what to expect from day to day consider how scary the virus is. Higher number means be alert, and prepare for anything.
It does mean that, worst come to worst we all need to be ready for what to come. I just came back from South Korea with confirmed case lingering around (just next to the building I stayed) and I'm considering to quarantine myself if I feel any sickness.
Situation in China is upredictable due to the fact that CCP is controlling the media and from what I understand from multiple post on Reddit, it's chaos. People in dire and scared, grasping for help from outside. Luckily, team of 'experts' from WHO is now in China, doing some work and hopefully WHO is not backing China with their 'situation under control' bs since Day 1. My advise is, as long as the number stays low in your country, stay calm and use mask if you're scared. The virus might have been around since early December/January, we just don't know who and where it might have been spreading this whole time.
I will update some more insight about this from time to time.